FORECAST model used to assess long-term pathways for ambitious greenhouse gas reduction in Germany

23.03.2016

A team consisting of researchers from Fraunhofer ISI and Oeko-Institut has developed model-based climate mitigation scenarios for Germany.

A team consisting of researchers from  Fraunhofer ISI and Oeko-Institut  has developed model-based climate mitigation scenarios for Germany. The scenarios consider all sectors of the energy system and show possible transition pathways up to 2050. The analysis includes two scenarios: one assuming an 80% and the other a 95% reduction of greenhouse gases by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. In this context, Fraunhofer ISI has used the FORECAST model to assess the transition in the industry, tertiary and residential sectors. The detailed, technology-based simulation provides a comprehensive picture of the required technological changes and indicates the policy measures needed to induce the transition. The results show the importance of energy efficiency (for appliances, but also in industrial production systems) and the fuel switch to biomass in industry as well as carbon capture and storage (the latter only in the 95% reduction scenario).

Download report (in German)

Download  summary  (in German)

Download Summary of second final report: Climate Protection Scenario 2050 (July 2016, in English)

More about the project (in German)