Excess heat from energy-intensive industries is often suitable for use in district heating systems but is usually unutilized. A detailed overview of the potentials available in the EU is now provided by a database of the sEEnergies project. In Germany, 29 petajoules of excess heat from industrial sites could be used, which corresponds to the demand of more than half a million households. The information is available as maps and downloadable datasets.
A recently published dissertation describes the extension of the FORECAST model to enable a scenario analysis for the German residential sector under the consideration of declining technological knowledge.
This thesis deals
with the topic of how technological knowledge declines over time, and the
resulting limitation of techno-economic
energy demand models to anticipate the future demand for energy in the
context of long-term scenarios. Since this is a principle limitation of ex ante
analyses, this deficiency has been discussed for some time, but so far no
methodological solution has been developed. This thesis is the first to develop
a concept that draws on a broad methodological basis
from different scientific disciplines (energy modelling and innovation
economics) to address this limitation. Applying the developed concept to a
practical question – energy scenarios for the German household sector until
2050 – shows that integrating the decline of technological knowledge leads to
interesting new insights.